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Why China Will Never Rule The World. Travels in the two Chinas. Troy Parfitt.  2011. ISBN 9780986803505. Troy contacted me to look at his book.  He warned me that it was controversial and Amazon would publish it in Sept.   I enjoy a good travelogue like this one. He is a Canadian history teacher who taught for 10 years in Taiwan and is now back in Canada.  He is just a regular person like us all with no “hidden interests or agendas”.  The book was prompted by a growing disconnect he saw between his experiences in China and the “roaring noise” he heard in the media that China was on a roll, that this was their era and they were on their way to a global hegemony.  So he took a total of three months to travel through China and the Taiwan to “live” in  the two Chinas, talk to regular folks, and see if there was this groundswell.  He took the routes of the residents, eschewed the tourist trails and essentially went native, with the record button turned on.   The time was just before the ’08 Olympics.  This was an eye opening trip for him. He used his history background to link the past to the present and  the future.  It is an easy read, well written and annotated with a style that allows you, the reader to build your own opinions from the views that Troy brings back.

I do not want to spoil the book for you, but I now agree with Troy’s thesis – China can not “rule the world”. The countries behavior is too tied into past history ( they can never forgive a slight – eg America backing the S Koreans, despite pouring billions into China during WW II, and now supporting Taiwan. The other slights are the Europeans and Americans having the opium wars.) China will not  forgive and forget and then move forward.  Revenge for these and other events will eventually come.  The behavior of Chiang Kai Chek and Mao was driven more often by revenge than anythng else.

From this book I take away that:

• China will never move to a democracy (Communism “fits” the Confucian culture. too well).
• When the leaders feel they have the US in a tight situation (Eg Move to sell their US bonds, or cripple their IT) they will move against Taiwan, even tho’ very few Taiwanese wish it.
• Hong Kong will slowly lose the freedoms they have now and will never get the vote ( When I was over there I heard over and over again that the plan was for Shanghai to eclipse Hong Kong as a financial centre).
• The “media” in China present the opposite of the truth until it becomes a “cultural truth”
• The educational system predicates against graduating students who can think for themselves, putting them well behind “western ” abilities
• The emerging wealthy  middle class will not give power to the 800 million poverty stricken peasants, preferring to transfer wealth to Western investments
• The West will continue to mess up in dealing with this country, since they will never understand the basis of Chinese decisions. The West will be played like a harmonica (Like they are being played in Pakistan)
• Religious freedom will never come to the country, persecution will continue
• Copyright protection will not take place in China, they are too good at copying everything.
• It will continue to be one of the most polluted countries ever and a growing global contributor.
• The concept of losing face is mostly a ploy to ensure that the country is not called out for its blatant acts.
• The leadership will continue to take advantage of the Chinese people. Corruption will always be there.
• We should watch to see what plays out in Africa with the heavy Chinese investment.

I liked it and suggest this is a good one for the “skeptical” reader. You can see how the the authors becomes quite emotional in his  responses through the description of his initial openness and the resulting experiences. I particularly enjoyed his use of  Orwell’s 1984 commentary.

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Bin Laden. The man who declared war on America. Yossef Bodansky. 2000. ISBN 0761535810. This is a chilling book. On one hand you have a thoroughly researched series of briefing notes on how the Islamic militants grew their network of reources worldwide from the late 80s through to 2000.  These notes were prepared for the US Govt Antiterrorism desk.  Then you have the sheer blindness of  some of the American  powers that be that had this material, yet still became  dupes of the Islamist extremists in Somalia, Africa, Iran, Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan.   In practise terrorism exercises the US found that in the 90s their groups such as the FBI, CIA and so on could not work together or share information.

Then you read how supposed US allies ( Saudi Arabia, & Pakistan) manipulate US liberal tendencies to their own ends – on the one hand funding and locating terrorist raining camps and on the other  getting US help, aid and nuclear know how given to them .  The author lays out lots of evidence on how the Pakistan secrets service is still  a major supporter of  Islamic militants and how much of the the worldwide terrorism in the 90s was planned and funded by the Iranians (which they still do) as well  s Syria and Jordan.

When you read the dates of the various meetings, militants announcements and activities you have to wonder what the Clinton administration was doing when they had all this information in front of them   Even more disheartening is the realization that the root anger over what the Crusaders did in the 12th century is still part of the Islamic fundamentalists belief structure. That and the ongoing existence of Isreal are anger spots that will not go away.

The sheer numbers of youth who are being inculcated into retrograde Islamaic fundamentalism that is really  stuck in the 12th century,  is overwhelming. This creates armies of undereducated hard liners who will die for a cause.  This is not an easy book to read  yet it is a must read for an eduacted man and woman.  I had a hard time not to see much of what is being tried as eventually futile efforts since for the militants Islam is the only future for the world.  Unless the masses of citizens in these repressive monotheistic states such as Iran, Syria, Jordan, Sudan, Somalia can somehow come together to remove the top levels that promote this hatred,  little  can be done.

Bin Laden appears to be a very bright  educated individual, who built a network that could well outlive him. (Some say he is already dead, and is a figurehead since 2001) .  Certianly funding, resources,  and an organization of terror is well entrenched.

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Guns Germs, and Steel. The fates of human society. Jared Diamond. 1997. ISBN 139780393317558.   When first published this book set new ideas in motion as to why over time some  civilizations rise and flourish, while others do not. His insights into the ease of trade and technology movement allowed with the east west alignment of Eurasia vs the NS alignment of North America based on geographic and climatic zones is very useful.  His long cycle analysis of China, New Guinea, Polynesia and other sociaties gave us ideas about species extinction, warfare, and technology acceptance as well as showing how groups benefits from smallness and friendly competition ( unity of China vs fragmentation of Europe) . The base work still stands to help create a “science” of history and it has made it much more relevant to the  average reader.  The authors reputation  has suffered over the years from what appears to be some inability to validate some of his references, especially in New Guinea.  His writing style is pedantic and repetitive, with an inability to “stay on course” to finish an idea with an idea before veering off to a pet thesis.  If you are a history buff this book warrants a serious read and is worth it.

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(promiscuity)

Virus Hunters of the CDC. Joseph B. McCormick & Susan Fisher-Hoch. 1996. ISBN 15703627777.  This is the real life story of two preeminent specialists in those nasty viruses that arise in Africa. Lassa fever, Ebola, (the hemorrhagics) as well as HIV. They are right on the front lines (now in Pakistan)  managing at great risk to do the tedious and detailed work needed to help save lives. The real crying shame of all this is the continued self serving corruption and tribalism that continues in Africa which prevents the known remedies to these “plagues” from being reffectvelt used.  I was also aghast to find that the combination of increased urbanism  and the misuse of Western medical technology (re-using disposable needles for injections etc0 has a direct relation to the increase in AIDs world wide. Very worthwhile book to take heed of.

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Decline and Fall. Europe’s Slow Motion Suicide. Bruce Thornton. 2008. ISBN 9781594032068. A short well written sombre book.  The author is a classisist, who has an impressive academic background.

(From the UK description)  Despite the utopian promises of the EU, conditions are ripe for fulfilling Islamic scholar Bernard Lewis‘s prediction that in fifty years Europe will be an Islamic society, which is to say Europe will culturally disappear. In this penetrating and provocative book, the classicist Bruce S. Thornton shows how Europe reached this pass andanalyzes what Europe’s decline means for the United States.  

My lesson learned is that by turning away from its spiritual roots in Christianity (Through an Eloi-like pursuit of personal satisfaction) Europe is leaving itself open to a gradual Islamic assimilation. Compound this with the relative ease for immigrants to be caught in the EU social safety net,  but continue to deny them upward mobility into the better schools, jobs and full integration into EU society and you have a breeding ground for anger, crime, terrorism and isolation from society.  

The author traces this disconnect to deeply held national prejudices in Europe. He points out what N. America is doing well in this regard but hints that the US just may get tired of bailing Europe out with money and troops. Although  Europe desires to solve all world conflicts with diplomacy vs might they have been ineffective in all cases – resulting in Canada, the UK and the US putting  troops and funds in play. The Islamic nations see Europe as having no world wide power to affect them. They just expect them to accommodate, apologize  and give way to Islam. (The population growth of immigrants is incredible.)

He asks the question, “When will the US decide that NATO is an ineffective use of largely American funds and pull the support? “  That is a good one.

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Salt. A world history. Mark Kurlanski.2002. ISBN 0142001619. I wish they had taught history this way when I was chained to my high school seat. Instead of itching to get at math, i would have paid attention. The author (who has a delightful easy to read writing style) cut his teeth writing about the Basques and also cod. This one is a real keeper. Yes it has some recipes (very old) and lots of geography covered (since everyone needs/uses salt). But the interlinking between the rise and fall of civilizations that followed the fortunes of the salt industry, is simply fascinating. Great airplane /holiday book – reads like a fiction novel and it just makes so much sense. The gold nuggets for me were the insights into how govts, families and cartes manipluate these markets and countries. One thing I believe is that cultures and people do not change.

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Hot Flat and Crowded. How we need a green revolution and how it can renew America.  Thomas L. Freidman. 2008. ISBN 139780374166854.  This is the book you want your significant other to get you for Christmas.  His The World is Flat book did not point out that much new information as we seem to have known what he “discovered”.  This book is well written and flows easily from point to point.  His arguments (and there are more of them in this one) are good, logical and of course make way more sense than the politicians who would need to enact them.  If you, like me, do not suspect that “100 Easy Ways to Fight Global Warming at Home” will really solve the problems we are facing, then you will find this an insightful book.  It is free of the environmental hysteria, charts and graphs – just plain old useful rhetoric and analytical thought. Very good gift for your Gen Y children.

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Myself and Other More Important Matters . Charles Handy. 2008. ISBN 9780814401736. Charles Handy is considered the English Peter Drucker. He founded the London Business School, the first business school in the UK. He has had an extensive and varied career in the private and public sector as well as in some time in the spiritual vs secular life. His words to MBA candidates and graduates ring very true believing as he does that DO is much more important than IQ. A very easy reading and flowing book, Handy is a good writer, which one could trace back to his being a Classicist. I would suggest this as a thought provoking book when you have the time and inclination to ponder your life. On life after death, ” Well I did not give much thought to the world before I came into it, so why should I bother about it when I am gone? .” Good gift book from Father to Son.

When a Crocodile Eats the Sun. A memoir of Africa. Peter Godwin. 2007 ISBN9780316158947. The author was born in Rhodesia ( Zimbabwe). His parents had emigrated there from Europe after WW II and created a wonderful life, as did many other Caucasians. At one stage Zimbabwe was the breadbasket of Africa and an example country. Then came Robert Mugabe and his thugs. This is a reflection on 20 yrs of Mugabe after four years of civil war. It is a tale of wonderful country and chilling facts. I could not put the book down.

Connected: 24 Hours in the Global Economy. Daniel Altman. 2007. ISBN 978-0-374-13532-4. This is the penultimate insiders view of the world economy as Altman ( a serious business journalist with a PhD.), lets you peek inside the worlds of a dozen decision maker/influencers/ordinary people in many countries, in the same 24 hr period. Fascinating and much more insightful than The World is Flat. I can never read the world business news the same way again. It caused me to renew my online The Economist subscription. I appreciated the inside views on currency exchanges, credit and inflation. The story of Haier in China – delightful vignettes. I had forgotten how much Japan lacked competition until pointed out by Altman. The background on why the US will continue to force its dollar lower is worth the book price. The story about the plight of Chinese peasants really pulls at your gut. A must read, it is topical, thought provoking and appropriate for our market planning.